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The weakness of the secular opposition is not entirely of its own making. Arab authoritarian and semi-authoritarian regimes—many of which have been ruling their societies in the name of secular ideolo

In Arab societies, secular opposition has struggled against longstanding authoritarian regimes that repress liberal ideologies, while conservative social attitudes limit their political expression. A

To be sure, engagement offers no guarantees of success. It is the Iranian government that ultimately must make a strategic decision to change its own policies. The best thing Washington can do is main

This text discusses the necessity for strategic dialogue between the U.S. and Iran, emphasizing the importance of Iran's willingness to modify its policies. It asserts that the U.S. should provide Ira

nizations with local roots. They understand the importance and advantages of a decentralized system. They appear to have very little respect for the central government or even for Sunni politicians in

This text examines the intricate dynamics of Sunni political groups in Iraq amid changing power structures. Local organizations show a preference for decentralized systems, often in conflict with each

About the Authors MARINA OTTAWAY is a senior associate in the Democracy and Rule of Law Program and director of the Carnegie Middle East Program. Her most recent book, Beyond the Façade: Political Re

This section highlights the contributions of key authors associated with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Marina Ottaway, a senior associate, leads the Democracy and Rule of Law Program

REALTIES OF THE NEW MIDDLE EAST 13 always been the possibility that Syria could be coaxed and pressured into adopting more pragmatic policies. Revived U.S. efforts to relaunch the Israeli-Palestinian

The text discusses the political realities of Lebanon following Syria's withdrawal and the influence of Hizbollah and other political factions. Despite Syrian troop withdrawal, control issues persist,

38 THE NEW MIDDLE EAST must be clearly defined; in the Middle East, the concept of democracy promotion has fluctuated from aggressive rhetoric of regime overthrow at one extreme to small, little noti

The text discusses the fluctuating concept of democracy promotion in the Middle East, highlighting the confusion between promoting democracy and regime overthrow. It emphasizes the need for the U.S. t

Discrimination inevitably breeds discontent and resentment, and those certainly exist among Shi’i minorities in the Gulf and, of course, in Lebanon. The real question, however, is whether this resentm

The text examines the roots of resentment among Shi’i minorities in the Gulf and Lebanon, noting its implications for political activism. Discrimination and resentment have led to instances of violenc

It is out of this reality of conflicting and changing political agendas that a political agreement would have to be forged to transform Iraq once again from a failed state into a functioning one. It w

This text examines the complex realities of Iraq's political environment following the fall of Saddam Hussein and the subsequent rise of Iran as a powerful regional entity. It highlights the challenge

retrenchment into a more ideological posture by a movement that has sought, but has so far been denied, a legitimate political role. The adoption and subsequent abandonment of the freedom agenda broug

The text discusses the complexities faced in promoting democracy in Arab nations, highlighting the influence of incumbent regimes resistant to political reform. It notes that, despite potential allies

While an engagement approach should eventually be comprehensive, the United States should focus initially on Iraq, because the United States and Iran share an interest in retaining Iraq’s territorial

This text discusses the necessity of the U.S. focusing on Iraq to facilitate a U.S.-Iranian dialogue, aiming to retain Iraq's territorial integrity and mitigate civil conflict. It emphasizes the chall

the United States during 2007 has helped reduce violence, there has not been any corresponding political progress. Different Iraqi political figures and forces have competing and often changing vision

Post-2007, the United States achieved a reduction in violence in Iraq, yet significant political progress remains elusive. Iraqi political factions hold varying visions for the nation's future, with t

REALITIES OF THE NEW MIDDLE EAST 15 tion of the international consensus, obscures a deeper problem: realities on the ground have already destroyed much of the viability of the two-state solution. The

The viability of the two-state solution in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is increasingly in question due to the weakened Palestinian leadership and diminishing trust between Palestinians and Israel

represented by the March 8 forces led by Hizbollah and the Syrian regime, seen as proxies for Iran and its policy of regional domination. The Syria–Lebanon cluster, in this view, is at the center of t

This content discusses the influence of Syria and Iran on Lebanon's political environment, particularly the roles of the March 8 forces led by Hizbollah, and the March 14 coalition resisting Syrian co

36 THE NEW MIDDLE EAST restoring a balance of power that is not entirely dependent on a long-term, large U.S. military presence with its financial costs and negative political perceptions in the regi

This text discusses the changing power dynamics in the Middle East, particularly the region's responses to Iranian influence and the evolving role of the U.S. Historically reliant on American support,

Rice gave a more detailed explanation of the American approach to democratic reform in a speech in Cairo in June 2005. In January 2006, the United States went further: it canceled a meeting planned to

In a speech in Cairo in June 2005, Rice underscored U.S. democratic reform measures. The U.S. reacted to Egypt's governance by canceling a free-trade agreement due to human rights concerns. While some

which ended conclusively with a UN-mandated cease-fire and eventually a return to the status quo, made it very clear that neither country could break the balance of power. By removing Saddam Hussein,

This text discusses the significant changes in the balance of power in the Middle East following the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and the subsequent rise of Iranian influence in the region. The removal o

port they enjoyed, gave names to the rival groupings: the March14 anti-Syrian forces and the March 8 pro-Syrian forces. The March 14 demonstrations, which in the U.S. narrative became the Cedar Revolu

This text discusses the political dynamics in Lebanon following the Cedar Revolution, highlighting the division between the anti-Syrian March …

The Reality of the New Middle East The first step toward the formulation of a new policy is to understand the realities of the new Middle East as it is now. The three clusters of countries — Iran–Ira

The new Middle East is defined by three country clusters: Iran–Iraq, Lebanon–Syria, and Palestine–Israel, intertwined with issues such as nuclear proliferation and sectarianism. The U.S. faces not jus

albeit it is still inappropriate to talk about an axis. Iraq's problems, and possible solutions, are so closely intertwined with Iran that it is no longer possible to discuss solutions for Iraq withou

Iraq's current situation as a failed state is deeply intertwined with Iran's influence. The U.S. invasion has led to a power struggle, making it impossible for Iraq to function effectively. Political

Palestinian legislative elections to proceed credibly — but then led to an immediate American effort to overturn the result through any possible means. The Bush administration’s short attention span f

The text discusses the complications surrounding the Palestinian legislative elections and the subsequent U.S. effort to undermine the democratic outcome, particularly emphasizing the Bush administrat